Triple Digits On The Way?

The hottest temperature so far this year at Richmond International Airport has been 97 degrees, which occurred on July 26. There are indications of a weather pattern change this coming weekend, one that may bring triple-digit temperatures to Central Virginia. In any case, we might tie or beat the hottest temperatures so far this summer in Richmond. This weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure looks like it will develop in the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.

A setup like this can lead to highs in the upper 90's to around 100 degrees. Here are the record highs to beat at RIC for the weekend into early next week:

August 8: 104 (2007)
August 9: 101 (1930)
August 10: 100 (1900)
August 11: 102 (1900)

The average high for early August in Richmond is 87 degrees.

Look Back On July

Temperatures were slightly below normal for the month of July. We weren't the only ones who experienced below average temps...look at the upper Midwest!

Rain totals were slightly below average, generally speaking, with exception to isolated parts of the state. So where's all the rain? Parts of the deep south, especially Arkansas, got dumped on last month!

Isolated Showers This Afternoon

The initial batch of showers and thunderstorms has raced east of the area. Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will still be possible for the next few hours, the chances for severe weather is quickly diminishing. Clouds were too thick this morning and this storm system was moving too quickly for us to get any strong storms to develop.

Update On Severe Potential

It is a muggy out there this morning! We already have low clouds streaming across our skies with scattered showers in the higher terrain out west. I will address some of the issues from my previous post.

Causes for concern:

1) High humidity
This is a key ingredient for severe thunderstorms, and we have plenty of it today!

2) Strong "lift"
A small but potent upper level storm will pass the area in the early afternoon. This could easily trigger a few severe thunderstorms.

Limiting factors:

1) Clouds
It is already cloudy this morning, so it will be tough to get any sunshine today. This will hamper explosive thunderstorm development.

2) Timing
The storm system will pass overhead from noon to 6 PM, which shouldn't be too much of a limiting factor.

Taking all of this into account, the best chances for severe storms will be along and east of I-95. We will continue to monitor this through the day and bring you more updates.

Severe Potential On Sunday

A fast-moving upper level storm system will pass the area tomorrow and bring scattered showers to the area. Although temperatures will remain in the mid 80s, it will be very humid. This will provide enough fuel for a few thunderstorms to develop. However, there are two limiting factors to tomorrow's severe potential:

1) Cloud cover
I'm expecting most of the day to remain cloudy. This will prevent any daytime heating from the sun...a key ingredient for severe weather.

2) Timing
It looks like showers will move in quickly tomorrow, possibly by late morning for our western communities. This will also prevent the atmosphere from destabilizing.

Best chances for isolated severe storms will be along and east of I-95, where I'm expecting the most unstable air. It's something I'm watching very closely. I'll have another update tomorrow morning!

Isolated Showers West Of I-95

Extremely isolated thunderstorms have popped up in the Blue Ridge and western Piedmont over the past few hours. These are drifting very slowly to the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. A stray shower could try to sneak into central Virginia tonight, however, the chances for rain will be slim (less than 20%).