Summer-like Start to May

As a result of persistent high pressure in the region and good southerly flow, the first days of May have felt more like July in Central Virginia, when average highs are in the upper-80's. Normal high temperatures for early May are in the low-70's, but so far this month, our morning low temperatures have felt more like those highs. Richmond International Airport recorded morning low temperatures in the low-70's on both the 2nd and 3rd! Thursday will be another hot one, with highs around 90 degrees in the region, and high temperatures are still expected to reach the mid-80's Friday and Saturday before a strong cold front moves through. Here's a recap of our Lows and Highs so far this month:

May: (Low Temperature, High Temperature)

1: 58, 89

2: 72, 90

3: 73, 84

4: 63, 86

5: 56, 87

I mentioned a strong cold front coming on Saturday. This will sweep through in the morning and mid-day, allowing cooler, drier air to begin moving into the state. By late afternoon, temperatures will have fallen from the mid-80's to the low-70's. On Mother's Day, highs will only reach the upper-60's and low-70's! But this might be welcome relief for Mom after a week straight of Summer-like heat in Spring.

Less Humid Today

A weak cold front is moving through the Commonwealth this Tuesday morning, not bringing in a cooler air mass, but instead is scouring out some of our low-level moisture that has made the last several days so humid. Skies are already clearing in western parts of the state, as seen here in the visible satellite image taken at 7:45 AM.

Highs will still run above average all week in the 80's until our next storm system brings a stronger cold front through on Saturday. Showers and storms will be possible with this system. Once the front clears, much cooler air will move into the Mid-Atlantic. Mother's Day should be mostly sunny and cooler with morning temperatures in the 40's and afternoon highs in the upper-60's. If Mama doesn't like the heat and humidity, she'll love Mother's Day! Gotta keep Mama happy, y'all.

Heavy Rain Tracking Eastward

The storm system that produced deadly flooding in Tennessee over the weekend is tracking eastward Monday, dumping more heavy rain on Alabama, Georgia, and later today on the Carolinas. Virginia will likely be spared the widespread torrential downpours, but showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible today in the Commonwealth as the storm system approaches the East Coast. The cold front associated with this system will sweep through this evening, ending our rain chances. Here's a look at the surface map early Monday morning:
Rainfall totals have been highest in Tennessee, where heavy rainfall "trained" over the same areas for hours. The eastward progression of the precipitation was slow, meaning that as showers and storms tracked northeast within the line, the same locations kept receiving more and more rain. Here are some of the totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
Camden, TN 17.73"
Jackson, TN 16.57"
Nashville, TN 13.57"
Medina, TN 12.88"
Belle Meade, TN 12.54"
Elkton, KY 9.3"
Sardis Dam, MS 7.44"
Little Rock, AR 6.53"
Lexington, KY 6.03"
Tupelo, MS 4.97"

In Central Virginia, we should pick up a quarter of an inch or less of rain, but higher totals will be possible in the locations affected by thunderstorms today. Although the severe threat is very low in our area (we are not under a Slight Risk), any storms that develop can produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The most likely time for storms to develop will be from lunchtime through the afternoon during peak heating into the low-80's.

Weather Update - 9:20 PM

We've got plenty of heat and humidity to fuel thunderstorms for tonight, however, we don't have a "trigger" to spark any development. With the exception of a renegade shower, we should stay dry for the next several hours.

A small upper level disturbance is currently bringing thunderstorms to Mississippi and Alabama. This disturbance will glide along the jet stream into our area tomorrow morning and bring us a better chance for rain. After that batch of rain exits, a few isolated thunderstorms could pop up in the early afternoon, then we should dry off in the evening.

I thought I would share this computer forecast with you because I think it does a good job handling this situation.



Clouds will limit daytime heating from the sun, so the threat for severe storms looks low. Regardless, one or two storms could still become severe, so we will be tracking it closely!

Isolated Showers North Of I-64

Showers are quickly moving to the east and I'm expecting skies to clear out heading into the afternoon. Clouds will return by the evening with an isolated shower possible after sunset.

April 2010 The Fourth Warmest Ever

If you average out all the high and low temperatures from this past April, you will end up with 62.2 degrees. Although this doesn't seem like a high number, it is actually the fourth warmest April on record! Here are the top five:

1. 63.3 in 1891
2. 63.2 in 1994
3. 62.5 in 1886
4. 62.2 in 2010
5. 62.0 in 1985
   

We weren't the only ones dealing with the heat. It was very warm for most of the eastern half of the United States...especially in the upper Midwest.