Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Virginia. Surface dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s will combine with surface heating resulting in a moderate to very unstable atmosphere by afternoon. An approaching upper-level impulse and associated weak surface boundary will act as triggering mechanisms for storms, some of which will likely be severe. The environmental wind shear should be unidirectional, resulting in damaging straight-line winds as the primary severe mode. The axis of greatest shear and moisture should lie across north-central and northeastern Virginia. I would expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued for much of the area Wednesday afternoon. Farther north into Maryland and Pennsylvania, better dynamics and shear structure could result in a few tornadoes. The greatest limiting factor for storm development will be the extent of cloud cover associated with tonight's convection across the Southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. We'll have the latest on Wednesday's severe weather potential on CBS 6.

Tropics Update Tuesday

The area of showers and storms in the central Atlantic we've been monitoring this week is weakening today. The chances of this system organizing and strengthening into a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Alex are diminishing. Even the cloud-cover is less today, as evidenced in the visible satellite image:

Movement is still west-northwest at 15 mph, but the system will be moving into less favorable atmospheric conditions with more wind shear. This will probably prevent the system that initially generated as an atmospheric wave off of western Africa from strengthening. In fact, most of the intensity forecasts have it going downhill over the next few days:

Tropics Update Monday

The area of convection in the Central Atlantic (bright white clouds on the right) we are monitoring continues to show signs of strengthening and better organization. This has a pretty good chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next couple of days, then earning the name "Alex" if it reaches Tropical Storm strength (39 mph sustained winds). The system is currently tracking West-Northwest at 15 mph about 1400 miles East-Southeast of the Windward Islands. Here is the latest composite tracking for this system:

And the latest intensity forecast:

Weak shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow this system to organize and strengthen over the next 24-48 hours.

There is another wave just coming off of Africa behind it, and we will be watching that one over the coming days as well.

Rain Totals

Newest Data From The Tropics

Looking at the latest computer data, there is still a lot of agreement with the speed and direction of the system in the Atlantic. It should continue to move WNW towards the Windward Islands over the next few days.


On the flip side, computer forecasts are all over the place with the strength of this thing.

Water temperatures are very warm in this region, and wind shear isn't too strong. I think we should see this system strengthen over the next couple days and possibly become Alex.

A broad area of convection (thunderstorms) continues to slowly organize in the central Atlantic. Water temperatures are very warm in this region, however, wind shear is still moderately high, which is temporarily inhibiting the development of this system.

Most of the computer forecasts have this system strengthening over the next 48 hours as it drifts slowly westward.

If this trend continues, we will have our first named storm of the season - Alex. We will be tracking this closely through the week and will bring you more updates!