Something Brewing in the Tropics

A still disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity around Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (clouds on the right side of satellite image above) has a high probability of getting that much-needed center of circulation over the next 48 hours to strengthen into either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Bonnie. Movement is to the west-northwest at 10 mph toward the southeastern Bahamas. This complex is producing heavy rainfall in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and will probably dump heavy rain on the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southern Bahamas. But you can see this Wednesday morning that there is still no discernible center of circulation. Much of the deep convection is well to the east of where the center is expected to form.

If this can organize, model data indicates the track of this system will pass right over the Bahamas to southeast Florida at the end of the workweek. Winds could be at tropical storm force when reaching Florida (at least 39 mph sustained wind speeds).

More Storms Possible Wednesday

The upper-level pattern we've been in all week continues today, where a series of disturbances track over our region along an upper jet stream just to our north. With the high heat and humidity at the surface, storms result from the additional upper lift provided by these waves. As in recent days, some of these storms can become severe with damaging straight line winds greater than 65 mph. There may also be some hail around quarter-size in the strongest storms, but wind still looks like our primary threat. Any of these storms can produce heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 PM

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 p.m. for the yellow highlighted counties. Strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds in excess of 65 mph are possible, with large hail potentially as well. Check back often for updates, and we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

Few Severe Storms Possible Tuesday

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected again today in the area, as it is both very hot and humid. In addition, we continue to be in an upper-level pattern supportive of thunderstorm development as atmospheric waves (disturbances) track over the region. Although nearly the entire state is blanketed in this slight risk for severe storms today, this does not mean everyone will see rain or storms. But for those of you who do get a storm, it could be one with damaging wind gusts. Storm movement should be to the east at about 20-30 mph. Any of these showers and storms today will have local heavy downpours and potentially a lot of lightning. Stay weather aware if you're outdoors this afternoon and evening! Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck. Move indoors and away from windows and electronics. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Dwindling Rain Chances & More 100's Coming

Today should be the last day with decent rain chances in central Virginia this week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in the area, mainly this afternoon and early evening, as an upper wave in the atmosphere tracks over the mid-Atlantic. Although our severe threat is very low (the higher risk is to Virginia's northeast), some of our storms could produce gusty winds for localized wind damage. Any of these storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours and lightning. Rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday are lower, but because of the heat and humidity, a few showers and storms are possible both afternoons. After that, though, we should be in for several days with highs around 100 degrees in central Virginia as a strong ridge expands over the Commonwealth. This is the same ridge that produced high heat in the southern Plains and parts of the Mississippi valley region last week into the weekend. As Aaron mentioned in a previous blog entry over the weekend, it doesn't appear that our warmer-than-normal temperatures will be going away anytime soon. Here is the latest three month temperature outlook for the U.S.:

Unfortunately, the precipitation outlook for Virginia isn't optimistic:

The most effective way for us to make up our precipitation deficit (about 5.5" inches below average year-to-date in Richmond right now) into the Fall would be for one or two tropical systems or their remnants to move over Virginia and dump widespread heavy rainfall. The downside of that, though, is flash flooding and potential wind damage and tornadoes that accompany tropical systems making landfall. It's a Catch-22, really. Nevertheless, the short-term drought is not likely to continue long-term, especially if we keep getting these showers and storms that produce locally heavy rainfall. Here's the Drought Outlook through October, which shows improvement for our moderate drought areas in the Commonwealth:

Rain Totals - Sunday, July 18