Overnight Update: Ice, Snow, & Wind

Freezing rain (rain falling into surface temps of 32 degrees or colder) has been occurring in the Richmond Metro Area since 8 PM. Trees and power lines have a glaze of ice on them, and additional icing will occur as another band of rain moves through between 10:30 PM and 11:30 PM. Temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will cool to a point that snow will be the precipitation type after 2 AM. The back edge of the current area of precipitation will have moved through the metro by then, but wrap-around moisture from a rapidly intensifying surface low will bring light snow back into the area a few hours either side of sunrise. Very strong winds are still expected with this storm system, with wind speeds sustained in the range of 25-35 mph, and gusts to 45 mph. Winds in western Virginia could gust higher than 55 mph.

Winter Weather Late Tue-Wed

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the counties highlighted in pink, with a Winter Weather Advisory for the lavender shades for Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon. In the Watch area, more than 3" of snow is expected, with higher totals the farther north you go in the state. From around Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and north, 6"+ of snowfall accumulation is possible. In the Richmond Metro, up to 1"-2" of snow is expected, along with a period of freezing rain late Tuesday night. As of Tuesday mid-day, skies are partly cloudy with primarily high clouds. A few showers will be possible later this afternoon in Central Virginia, but it appears that our best precipitation chances will be after dark. Rain will continue to be likely overnight, with a period of freezing rain, too, as surface temperatures fall below freezing. Once colder air moves into the region aloft a few hours after Midnight Wednesday, freezing rain will turn to snow and continue into Wednesday morning. As winds pick up Wednesday from the northwest while a low pressure center intensifies to our east off the coast, ice-glazed power lines and trees may snap from the combined ice and snow accumulation, leading to some power outages in the region. There are already High Wind Warnings and Watches going into effect in parts of the state for the expected strong winds Wednesday:

Winter Storm Watch in Effect: Snow & Ice

A winter storm watch has been issued for all of central Virginia, with the expectation of another round of winter weather moving into the area on Tuesday. The precipitation should begin late Tuesday morning in the metro area as light snow. The snow will likely mix with sleet by mid afternoon, and will eventually change to freezing rain close to sunset. Surface temperatures should remain at or below freezing for a period of 6 to 9 hours as it continues to rain, allowing an appreciable accretion of ice on elevated objects and some roadways. The freezing rain will change back to snow a few hours after midnight, with snow tapering off during the morning Wednesday. Deepening low pressure just off the coast will create strong northwest winds Wednesday that could result in power outages, especially in areas that receive a good coating of ice on trees and power lines. Stay with CBS 6, We'll Keep You Ahead of the Storm.

More Snow For Northern Virginia

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, where there is the potential for 5" or more of snowfall during this timeframe in the highlighted counties. This would be on top of deep snowcover already in the region. Check out the visible satellite image:

See the line in southeast Pennsylvania into northern Maryland? That's the Susquehanna River.
South of the Watch area, snowfall accumulation is also possible, with up to an inch as far south as the Richmond metro and Farmville. What appears to be of a greater concern, though, is the potential for freezing rain Tuesday evening as surface temperatures dip below freezing while precipitation falls in liquid form. Colder air will move into the state aloft pre-dawn Wednesday, allowing precipitation to change over to snow. Snow showers will be possible through Wednesday morning in Central Virginia as the storm exits to the east.

A Look Ahead

We have yet another chance for wintry weather Tuesday into Wednesday. This is a complex scenario because two storms will merge right over top or us - a potent one from the north, a weaker one from the south. Here is the hour-by-hour forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday. Notice how the precip starts off as a mix, then changes to rain, then ends with snow by early Wednesday.

Communities near Farmville, Charlottesville and Fredericksburg will see much more sleet and snow with this event. Some of this will accumulate, so if you live near these areas, you will want to keep a close eye to the forecast tomorrow. Right now it looks like the brunt of the storm will miss us north, where D.C., Baltimore, and Philly could easily see 8 to 14" of snow!

A lot of people have been asking me about a potential storm this upcoming weekend. Computer forecasts have been very inconsistent with that scenario. Below are several different outputs from the same computer model (GFS ensemble). The circles to our south indicate the low pressure center of the storm. Notice how none of the circles are much farther north than North Carolina. This means that there is a low probability of this storm moving farther north. HOWEVER, things can always change, so we will be keeping a close eye on it!

Richmond Snowfall Update

Officially at Richmond International Airport, 6.6" of snowfall accumulated Friday and Saturday. Here's the breakdown:
Friday, February 5, 2010: 2.5"
Saturday, February 6, 2010: 4.1" (Record)

This puts the season's snowfall to date at 24.7", more than doubling our average Winter snowfall for Richmond!

But this is still well below the all-time record snowfall in a single season for Richmond:

The Winter of 1979-80 was a close second at 38.6" for the season.