Warmer & Dry Days

The rest of this week will be much warmer and dry with highs reaching the 80's Thursday through the weekend. Surface high pressure is building in from the Southeast U.S. today, and will settle over the Mid-Atlantic the rest of the week. Here's the surface map early Wednesday morning, where you can see the center of the high pressure is over eastern Tennessee:
This is accompanied by an upper-level ridge as well, which means skies will remain mostly sunny the rest of this week. High temperatures will reach the 80's Thursday through Sunday widespread in Central Virginia for the first time this Spring. The highest temperature in Richmond so far this year is 79 degrees on March 20th.

Minor River Flooding Through Wednesday

After several inches of rainfall the past couple of days, river, creek, and stream levels are rising in the Lower James River Basin and in the Appomattox Basin. However, only minor flooding is expected from Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon in these warned counties. The James River in Richmond will barely reach flood stage today and tomorrow. Here are the forecasts for the two measurement sites near the Huguenot Bridge and near Downtown:

Showers Linger, Rivers Rise

Rain showers will linger in the Commonwealth today and tomorrow while this upper storm system slowly tracks through the Mid-Atlantic. Here is a look at the upper-levels tomorrow morning:

Rain totals were widespread in the 1"-3" range overnight into Monday morning in Central Virginia, with some locations picking up more than 3" of rain. Most of this fell in a few hours as a squall line of strong thunderstorms tracked through the Commonwealth. As a result of so much rain in the area, river levels are rising and some are expected to reach their flood stages on Tuesday. The James River in Richmond near the Huguenot Bridge should reach flood stage around 3 p.m. Tuesday and peak at 13.5 feet at 2 a.m. on Wednesday.

In addition, so much moisture at the surface is leading to fog this morning, and will likely occur again overnight and Tuesday morning where winds are lighter.

Weather Update - 3:20 AM

The squall line that produced 1"-2" of rainfall in Central Virginia continues to track eastward into the eastern Peninsulas and Southeast Virginia. Showers remain behind the squall line for the southeast half of the state, but no additional thunderstorms are expected behind this squall line. Although the Tornado Watch technically remains in effect until 5 a.m. for several counties in southern Virginia, the threat has ended there, and I anticipate that watch being allowed to expire early. Along the squall line, expect heavy downpours and frequent lightning with some gusty winds, but no severe storms.

Weather Update - 12:15 AM

Thunderstorms will continue to develop across central and southern Virginia. A Tornado Watch is still in effect for southern Virginia until 5 AM. In addition, it is very warm across most of southeastern Virginia (from Petersburg to Norfolk), so I wouldn't be surprised if the watch is extended near that area. Most of the thunderstorms will move east of the area between 5 to 8 AM. Widely scattered showers will persist into Monday afternoon and evening, however, the chances for thunderstorms will be very slim.

One to two inches of rain has already fallen in metro Richmond with heavier amounts to the north and west. We could easily pick up 1 to 2 more inches, so there could be ponding on the roadways for the commute tomorrow morning, so be extra careful. Rivers and streams will also be running high - you can monitor them at the following link:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=va&w=map

Weather Update - 9:45 PM

Thunderstorms continue to develop near Danville, South Boston and Farmville. These storms are racing to the northeast at 40 to 45 mph and are weakening once they arrive in central VA. The front responsible for all of this is drifting in our direction, so we will see the thunderstorm activity shift eastward as well. I will be in the Storm Center here tonight until Carrie arrives, so if there are any warnings, we've got you covered!